Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Jaime Faria
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Jaime Faria
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
4-6 (W-L)
Jaime Faria
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Shintaro Mochizuki
1–1
Jaime Faria
(2 last)
- 19 Jun2-0 12-2W
- 13 May0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1492 · Jaime Faria 1548
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Jaime Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jaime Faria (rating 1492 vs 1548).
- Jaime Faria dominates on serve: 9 aces and 46.3% break avg.
- Jaime Faria is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (5.4/match).
- Note: Jaime Faria makes many double faults (6.6/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Jaime Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.7-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-12.6 | 14-13.6 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 9 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 6.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 52% | 46.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.5
Over 21.5: 67% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 33% · 1.90
H2H · Shintaro Mochizuki 1 – 1 Jaime Faria (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shintaro Mochizuki 1–1 Jaime Faria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/25 Challenger Nottingham | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/05/24 Challenger Oeiras | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Linang Xiao ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Braden Shick US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Daniel Milavsky US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Jaime Faria
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 24/09 | Terence Atmane ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-22 | L |
| 30/08 | Jenson Brooksby US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 20/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 17/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Yibing Wu ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria?
Our model gives 66% to Jaime Faria, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.