Prediction: Rinky Hijikata vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Team pages: Rinky Hijikata · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Rinky Hijikata
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rinky Hijikata
3-7 (W-L)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1-9 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rinky Hijikata
1–0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
(1 last)
- 19 Sept2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rinky Hijikata 1501 · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1441
| Rinky Hijikata | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rinky Hijikata (rating 1501 vs 1441).
- Head-to-head: Rinky Hijikata 1–0 Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1).
- Note: Camilo Ugo Carabelli makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Rinky Hijikata | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 0.9-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-13.2 | 11.7-14.5 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 64.1% | 68.5% |
| Break % | 30.6% | 35.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.3
Over 21.5: 66% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 34% · 1.83
H2H · Rinky Hijikata 1 – 0 Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rinky Hijikata 1–0 Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/25 ATP Hangzhou | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rinky Hijikata
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 26/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 24/08 | Darwin Blanch ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/08 | Jaume Munar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rinky Hijikata vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Our model gives 67% to Rinky Hijikata, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.