Prediction: Arthur Fils vs Martin Damm
Team pages: Arthur Fils · Martin Damm
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Fils
Martin Damm
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Fils
9-1 (W-L)
Martin Damm
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Fils 1595 · Martin Damm 1484
| Arthur Fils | Martin Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Fils (rating 1595 vs 1484).
- Arthur Fils dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 46.9% break avg.
- Martin Damm dominates on serve: 12.8 aces and 41% break avg.
- Arthur Fils is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Martin Damm makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Fils | Martin Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-9.5 | 13.1-12.8 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 12.8 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.5% | 76% |
| Break % | 46.9% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.7
Over 21.5: 62% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 38% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Fils
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Martin Damm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 27/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Fils vs Martin Damm?
Our model gives 74% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.