Tennis · Challenger Porto · 29/09, 11:00
Prediction: Toby Samuel vs Mackenzie McDonald
Team pages: Toby Samuel · Mackenzie McDonald
Prediction summary
Winner
Toby Samuel
Mackenzie McDonald
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Toby Samuel
5-5 (W-L)
Mackenzie McDonald
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toby Samuel 1570 · Mackenzie McDonald 1465
| Toby Samuel | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toby Samuel (rating 1570 vs 1465).
- Toby Samuel is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Toby Samuel makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Toby Samuel | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-10 | 11.5-13.3 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 53.9% | 47.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Andy Andrade Davis Cup |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 30/08 | Tomas Machac US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Billy Harris US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Francesco Maestrelli US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Mackenzie McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 26/08 | Thiago Seyboth Wild US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Stefano Napolitano US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Yibing Wu ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Edas Butvilas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toby Samuel vs Mackenzie McDonald?
Our model gives 69% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.