Tennis · Challenger Porto · 29/09, 11:00
Prediction: Benjamin Bonzi vs August Holmgren
Team pages: Benjamin Bonzi · August Holmgren
Prediction summary
Winner
Benjamin Bonzi
August Holmgren
Estimated games
24.3
Recent form · 10 last
Benjamin Bonzi
6-4 (W-L)
August Holmgren
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Benjamin Bonzi 1563 · August Holmgren 1457
| Benjamin Bonzi | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benjamin Bonzi (rating 1563 vs 1457).
- Benjamin Bonzi is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Benjamin Bonzi | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-11.7 | 13.6-13.5 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 43.5% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Benjamin Bonzi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Ignacio Buse US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex Molcan US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-15 | W |
| 28/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 27/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 24/08 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Justin Boulais Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
August Holmgren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Benjamin Bonzi vs August Holmgren?
Our model gives 71% to Benjamin Bonzi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.