Tennis · Challenger Porto · 27/09, 16:30
Prediction: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Luca Potenza
Team pages: Ivan Marrero Curbelo · Luca Potenza
Prediction summary
Winner
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Luca Potenza
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
4-6 (W-L)
Luca Potenza
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ivan Marrero Curbelo 1487 · Luca Potenza 1507
| Ivan Marrero Curbelo | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Ivan Marrero Curbelo | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.9 | 14.3-13.6 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 38% | 41.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 26/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/08 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Lev Seidman Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 07/08 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Luca Potenza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/09 | Finn Bass Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 05/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 03/09 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 01/09 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Daniel Masur Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/08 | Alec Deckers Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Aryan Shah M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Luca Potenza?
Our model gives 56% to Luca Potenza, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.