Tennis · Challenger Porto · 27/09, 13:30
Prediction: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Marko Topo
Team pages: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez · Marko Topo
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Marko Topo
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Marko Topo
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
1–1
Marko Topo
(2 last)
- 13 Nov2-1 14-10W
- 31 Oct0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1465 · Marko Topo 1509
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Marko Topo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marko Topo (rating 1465 vs 1509).
- Marko Topo is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Marko Topo makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Marko Topo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.1-10.8 | 12-10.8 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 71.7% |
| Break % | 43% | 50.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1 – 1 Marko Topo (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1–1 Marko Topo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/24 M25 Vale do Lobo | 2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 31/10/24 M25 Heraklion | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Giulio Perego M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Calum Puttergill Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Aryan Shah M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Ander Tarrio Ponte M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Marko Topo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Kristijan Juhas M25 Zlatibor |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexandre Aubriot M25 Zlatibor |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Stefan Popovic M25 Zlatibor |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Nikita Belozertsev M25 Zlatibor |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/09 | Caheer Warik M25 Zlatibor |
2-1 | 10-12 | W |
| 09/09 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Miguel Damas Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Marko Topo?
Our model gives 67% to Marko Topo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.