Tennis · Laver Cup · 26/09, 15:30
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
26.4Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
10-0 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
7–3
Alex De Minaur
(10 last)
- 20 Sept0-2 5-12L
- 05 Jun3-0 19-14W
- 12 Mar2-1 17-12W
- 06 Jan1-2 14-17L
- 12 May2-0 13-9W
- 28 Oct2-1 15-10W
- 03 Jan1-2 14-17L
- 01 Mar2-0 12-8W
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1618 · Alex De Minaur 1515
| Alexander Zverev | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1618 vs 1515).
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 13.1 aces and 40.9% break avg.
- Alexander Zverev is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 7–3 Alex De Minaur (10).
- Note: Alexander Zverev makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.6-0.7 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 19.9-14.6 | 12.5-11.3 |
| Aces | 13.1 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 79.2% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 35% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.4 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +6.9
Over 19.5: 89% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 11% · 1.90
H2H · Alexander Zverev 7 – 3 Alex De Minaur (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 7–3 Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 Laver Cup | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/06/24 French Open | 3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 12/03/24 ATP Indian Wells | 2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 06/01/24 United Cup | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/05/22 ATP Rome | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/10/21 ATP Vienna | 2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 03/01/20 ATP Cup | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 01/03/19 ATP Acapulco | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Dino Prizmic Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Matej Dodig Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 11/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 10/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 06/09 | Alejandro Tabilo US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 04/09 | Quentin Halys US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-26 | W |
| 02/09 | Lorenzo Sonego US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-26 | W |
| 19/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 05/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 69% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.