Prediction: Jakub Mensik vs Brandon Nakashima
Team pages: Jakub Mensik · Brandon Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Jakub Mensik
Brandon Nakashima
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jakub Mensik
6-4 (W-L)
Brandon Nakashima
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jakub Mensik
2–1
Brandon Nakashima
(3 last)
- 30 Jul1-2 16-16L
- 10 Jan2-0 13-10W
- 05 Jan2-0 14-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jakub Mensik 1523 · Brandon Nakashima 1574
| Jakub Mensik | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1523 vs 1574).
- Head-to-head: Jakub Mensik 2–1 Brandon Nakashima (3).
- Note: Jakub Mensik makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Jakub Mensik | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.2 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-13.7 | 13.8-11.1 |
| Aces | 12 | 11.7 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 77.9% | 79.2% |
| Break % | 36.8% | 34.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4.4
Over 20.5: 78% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 22% · 1.90
H2H · Jakub Mensik 2 – 1 Brandon Nakashima (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jakub Mensik 2–1 Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 ATP Washington | 1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 10/01/24 Australian Open | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/01/24 Challenger Canberra | 2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jakub Mensik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Ben Shelton Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Learner Tien Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 03/09 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 19/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 12/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Sebastian Baez US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 16/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jakub Mensik vs Brandon Nakashima?
Our model gives 51% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.