Prediction: Casper Ruud vs Francisco Cerundolo
Team pages: Casper Ruud · Francisco Cerundolo
Prediction summary
Winner
Casper Ruud
Francisco Cerundolo
Estimated games
26.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Casper Ruud
5-5 (W-L)
Francisco Cerundolo
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Casper Ruud
4–5
Francisco Cerundolo
(9 last)
- 02 May2-0 13-9W
- 25 Mar0-2 6-12L
- 20 Sept0-2 8-12L
- 31 Jul2-0 12-7W
- 01 Nov0-2 9-13L
- 17 May2-0 13-10W
- 20 Apr0-2 9-13L
- 13 Jul1-2 15-16L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Casper Ruud 1521 · Francisco Cerundolo 1514
| Casper Ruud | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Casper Ruud dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 47.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Casper Ruud 4–5 Francisco Cerundolo (9).
- Note: Francisco Cerundolo makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Casper Ruud | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.3 | 1.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.7-13.5 | 14.9-14.7 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 47.7% | 32.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +6
Over 20.5: 86% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 14% · 1.80
H2H · Casper Ruud 4 – 5 Francisco Cerundolo (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Casper Ruud 4–5 Francisco Cerundolo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/25 ATP Madrid | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/03/25 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/09/24 Laver Cup | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 31/07/24 Olympics 2024 - Men | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/11/23 ATP Paris | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/05/23 ATP Rome | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/04/23 ATP Barcelona | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/07/22 ATP Bastad | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Casper Ruud
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Fnu Nidunjianzan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/09 | Rigele Te Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Tommy Paul French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
| 27/05 | Hamad Medjedovic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
Francisco Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Mert Alkaya Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/09 | Yanki Erel Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 05/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 03/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 01/09 | Filip Misolic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Jaume Munar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Casper Ruud vs Francisco Cerundolo?
Our model gives 52% to Casper Ruud, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.