Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Bublik
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Alexander Bublik
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Alexander Bublik
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
7-3 (W-L)
Alexander Bublik
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1550 · Alexander Bublik 1537
| Rafael Jodar | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Alexander Bublik makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-10.1 | 16.6-14.3 |
| Aces | 3 | 15.8 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 79.3% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 31.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4.6
Over 20.5: 79% · 2.00
Under 20.5: 21% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Cristian Garin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 13/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 21-27 | L |
| 03/09 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Bublik?
Our model gives 60% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.