Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 26/09, 10:30
Prediction: Valentin Vacherot vs Lloyd Harris
Team pages: Valentin Vacherot · Lloyd Harris
Prediction summary
Winner
Valentin Vacherot
Lloyd Harris
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Valentin Vacherot
5-5 (W-L)
Lloyd Harris
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentin Vacherot 1502 · Lloyd Harris 1612
| Valentin Vacherot | Lloyd Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lloyd Harris (rating 1502 vs 1612).
- Lloyd Harris dominates on serve: 13.2 aces and 57.2% break avg.
- Lloyd Harris is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Valentin Vacherot makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Valentin Vacherot | Lloyd Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.4 | 1.9-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-13.9 | 15.6-12.5 |
| Aces | 12.2 | 13.2 |
| Double faults | 5 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 77.6% | 79.2% |
| Break % | 27% | 57.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.7
Over 23.5: 62% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 38% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentin Vacherot
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Otto Virtanen Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Eero Vasa Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Kamil Majchrzak US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 15/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Lloyd Harris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 02/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 30/08 | Jack Kennedy US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 28/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Henrique Rocha US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Bernard Tomic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentin Vacherot vs Lloyd Harris?
Our model gives 55% to Lloyd Harris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.