Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 26/09, 07:00
Prediction: Martin Damm vs Hubert Hurkacz
Team pages: Martin Damm · Hubert Hurkacz
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Damm
Hubert Hurkacz
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Damm
5-5 (W-L)
Hubert Hurkacz
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Martin Damm
1–0
Hubert Hurkacz
(1 last)
- 03 Feb2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Damm 1514 · Hubert Hurkacz 1570
| Martin Damm | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1514 vs 1570).
- Martin Damm dominates on serve: 12.3 aces and 41.7% break avg.
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 12.9 aces and 41.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Martin Damm 1–0 Hubert Hurkacz (1).
- Note: Martin Damm makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Martin Damm | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.8-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-12.9 | 15.5-12.2 |
| Aces | 12.3 | 12.9 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.2% | 77.1% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 41.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.4
Over 23.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Martin Damm 1 – 0 Hubert Hurkacz (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Martin Damm 1–0 Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/26 ATP Montpellier | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Damm
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 27/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/07 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 31/08 | Damir Dzumhur US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/08 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Damm vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model gives 66% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.