Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 25/09, 08:30
Prediction: Alejandro Tabilo vs Adrian Mannarino
Team pages: Alejandro Tabilo · Adrian Mannarino
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Tabilo
Adrian Mannarino
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Tabilo
5-5 (W-L)
Adrian Mannarino
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Tabilo 1505 · Adrian Mannarino 1479
| Alejandro Tabilo | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alejandro Tabilo | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.4 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-14.5 | 10.8-12.6 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 74.9% | 72% |
| Break % | 34.2% | 36.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.7
Over 22.5: 62% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 38% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Tabilo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-20 | W |
| 31/08 | Yannick Hanfmann US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 01/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Juncheng Shang ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Dan Added Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-21 | W |
| 26/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Learner Tien ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Tabilo vs Adrian Mannarino?
Our model gives 60% to Alejandro Tabilo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.