Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 26/09, 07:00
Prediction: Jenson Brooksby vs Lorenzo Sonego
Team pages: Jenson Brooksby · Lorenzo Sonego
Prediction summary
Winner
Jenson Brooksby
Lorenzo Sonego
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jenson Brooksby
5-5 (W-L)
Lorenzo Sonego
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jenson Brooksby 1499 · Lorenzo Sonego 1493
| Jenson Brooksby | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Jenson Brooksby | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.2 | 13.2-13.2 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 9 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 43% | 36.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.8
Over 22.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jenson Brooksby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Sebastian Baez ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Jaime Faria US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-24 | L |
| 25/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Adam Walton ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Coleman Wong ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Edward Winter ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Corentin Moutet ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Lorenzo Sonego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | James Duckworth ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 02/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 27/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jenson Brooksby vs Lorenzo Sonego?
Our model gives 54% to Jenson Brooksby, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.