Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 25/09, 02:00
Prediction: Naoki Nakagawa vs Natsuki Yamamoto
Team pages: Naoki Nakagawa · Natsuki Yamamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Naoki Nakagawa
Natsuki Yamamoto
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Naoki Nakagawa
8-2 (W-L)
Natsuki Yamamoto
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoki Nakagawa 1594 · Natsuki Yamamoto 1493
| Naoki Nakagawa | Natsuki Yamamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 92% | 8% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naoki Nakagawa (rating 1594 vs 1493).
- Naoki Nakagawa dominates on serve: 7 aces and 49% break avg.
- Naoki Nakagawa is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Natsuki Yamamoto makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Naoki Nakagawa | Natsuki Yamamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-8.8 | 9.5-11.3 |
| Aces | 7 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 82.3% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 49% | 31.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Ryota Tanuma M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Naoya Honda M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Yua Taka M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Cooper Woestendick M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Clement Chidekh M25 Southaven |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 19/07 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Natsuki Yamamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Raffael Gasanov UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 24/09 | Takumi Katsuda UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Taki Adachi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Chen-Yu Lu M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Xin Zhou M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/09 | Xin Zhou M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-11 | L |
| 25/08 | Xirui Han M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Ku Keon Kang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/07 | Yu Tanaka M15 Astana |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Ye Cong Mo M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoki Nakagawa vs Natsuki Yamamoto?
Our model gives 79% to Naoki Nakagawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.