Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 26/09, 07:00
Prediction: Vit Kopriva vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Vit Kopriva · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Vit Kopriva
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Vit Kopriva
3-7 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Vit Kopriva
1–0
Denis Shapovalov
(1 last)
- 22 Jul2-1 14-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vit Kopriva 1469 · Denis Shapovalov 1567
| Vit Kopriva | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denis Shapovalov (rating 1469 vs 1567).
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 8 aces and 49.7% break avg.
- Denis Shapovalov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Vit Kopriva 1–0 Denis Shapovalov (1).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Vit Kopriva | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.8-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-13.1 | 15-12 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 8 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 6.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 28.9% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.9
Over 20.5: 70% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 30% · 1.83
H2H · Vit Kopriva 1 – 0 Denis Shapovalov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vit Kopriva 1–0 Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/21 ATP Gstaad | 2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vit Kopriva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Jia Hu ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 22/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/08 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 13/07 | Dino Prizmic ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vit Kopriva vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 72% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.