Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 24/09, 07:00
Prediction: Federico Cina vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Team pages: Federico Cina · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Cina
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Cina
5-5 (W-L)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Cina 1483 · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1465
| Federico Cina | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Camilo Ugo Carabelli makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Federico Cina | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.2-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.8 | 13.1-14.5 |
| Aces | 5 | 5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.2% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 38.9% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Cina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Kaichi Uchida ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | James Trotter Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 28/08 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 27/08 | Hugo Dellien US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Elias Ymer Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Emilio Nava French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Cina vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Our model gives 58% to Federico Cina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.