Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 24/09, 10:00
Prediction: Martin Damm vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Team pages: Martin Damm · Shintaro Mochizuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Damm
Shintaro Mochizuki
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Damm
5-5 (W-L)
Shintaro Mochizuki
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Martin Damm
1–1
Shintaro Mochizuki
(2 last)
- 19 Aug1-2 14-19L
- 01 Dec2-1 18-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Damm 1499 · Shintaro Mochizuki 1492
| Martin Damm | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Martin Damm dominates on serve: 11.3 aces and 43.3% break avg.
- Note: Martin Damm makes many double faults (4.7/match).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Martin Damm | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-12.6 | 11.1-12.6 |
| Aces | 11.3 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 5.6 |
| 1st serve % | 77.8% | 68.5% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 54% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2
Over 21.5: 64% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 36% · 1.90
H2H · Martin Damm 1 – 1 Shintaro Mochizuki (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Martin Damm 1–1 Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/24 US Open | 1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 01/12/20 ITF M15 Santo Domingo | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Damm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 27/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/07 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 25/07 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Linang Xiao ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Braden Shick US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Daniel Milavsky US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Damm vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 56% to Martin Damm, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.