Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 24/09, 10:00
Prediction: Lloyd Harris vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Team pages: Lloyd Harris · Aleksandar Kovacevic
Prediction summary
Winner
Lloyd Harris
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Estimated games
24.8Bet365 line 25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lloyd Harris
7-3 (W-L)
Aleksandar Kovacevic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lloyd Harris 1581 · Aleksandar Kovacevic 1486
| Lloyd Harris | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lloyd Harris (rating 1581 vs 1486).
- Lloyd Harris dominates on serve: 11.6 aces and 63.9% break avg.
- Aleksandar Kovacevic dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 44.1% break avg.
- Lloyd Harris is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Aleksandar Kovacevic makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Lloyd Harris | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-13 | 12-14.4 |
| Aces | 11.6 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 76.9% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 63.9% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8 · Bet365 line 25.5 · -0.7
Over 25.5: 45% · 1.83
Under 25.5: 55% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lloyd Harris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 02/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 30/08 | Jack Kennedy US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 28/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Henrique Rocha US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Bernard Tomic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 23/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 27/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Karen Khachanov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 02/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lloyd Harris vs Aleksandar Kovacevic?
Our model gives 62% to Lloyd Harris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.