Tennis · WTA Singapore · 24/09, 05:00
Prediction: Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska
Team pages: Elise Mertens · Maja Chwalinska
Prediction summary
Winner
Elise Mertens
Maja Chwalinska
Estimated games
20.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elise Mertens
5-5 (W-L)
Maja Chwalinska
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elise Mertens
0–1
Maja Chwalinska
(1 last)
- 28 May0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elise Mertens 1535 · Maja Chwalinska 1489
| Elise Mertens | Maja Chwalinska | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elise Mertens (rating 1535 vs 1489).
- Head-to-head: Elise Mertens 0–1 Maja Chwalinska (1).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Elise Mertens | Maja Chwalinska | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11.1 | 9.6-10.1 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 59.3% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 52.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -0.6
Over 21.5: 46% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 54% · 1.83
H2H · Elise Mertens 0 – 1 Maja Chwalinska (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elise Mertens 0–1 Maja Chwalinska
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/26 French Open Women | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Maria Timofeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 08/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Maja Chwalinska
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/09 | Rebecca Sramkova WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Alycia Parks WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 17/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Cristina Bucsa WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska?
Our model gives 63% to Elise Mertens, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.