Tennis · Challenger Buenos Aires · 23/09, 17:00
Prediction: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Murkel Dellien · Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Murkel Dellien
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Murkel Dellien
3-7 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Murkel Dellien
1–3
Juan Pablo Varillas
(4 last)
- 19 Nov0-2 5-13L
- 04 Nov2-0 12-8W
- 04 Mar0-2 4-12L
- 09 Sept0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Murkel Dellien 1449 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1580
| Murkel Dellien | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1449 vs 1580).
- Juan Pablo Varillas is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Murkel Dellien 1–3 Juan Pablo Varillas (4).
Statistics
| Murkel Dellien | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-11.3 | 13.6-10.5 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 0.6 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 30.4% | 42.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Murkel Dellien 1 – 3 Juan Pablo Varillas (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Murkel Dellien 1–3 Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/25 Challenger Guayaquil | 0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 04/11/24 Challenger Lima | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/03/22 Davis Cup | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/09/15 ITF Bolivia F1 | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Murkel Dellien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Benito Sanchez Martinez Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Ryan Nijboer Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Adrian Andreev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Jack Loge M25 Wetzlar |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Lars Goran Verwerft M25 Wetzlar |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Jip Van Assendelft M25 Wetzlar |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Jose Pereira M25 Sao Paulo |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Victor Bini M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Tomas Farjat Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/09 | Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 11/09 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 06/09 | Matej Dodig Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Jay Clarke Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 75% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.