Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 23/09, 08:30
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Pavel Kotov
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Pavel Kotov
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
3-7 (W-L)
Pavel Kotov
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Shintaro Mochizuki
0–1
Pavel Kotov
(1 last)
- 15 Sept0-2 7-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1472 · Pavel Kotov 1584
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Kotov (rating 1472 vs 1584).
- Pavel Kotov dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 43.2% break avg.
- Pavel Kotov is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Shintaro Mochizuki 0–1 Pavel Kotov (1).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-13.3 | 12.9-11.3 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 73% |
| Break % | 47.3% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.90
H2H · Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 1 Pavel Kotov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shintaro Mochizuki 0–1 Pavel Kotov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/26 Challenger Guangzhou | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Linang Xiao ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Braden Shick US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Daniel Milavsky US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
Pavel Kotov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Luca Castelnuovo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 20/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov?
Our model gives 62% to Pavel Kotov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.