Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 23/09, 06:00
Prediction: Lloyd Harris vs Alexis Galarneau
Team pages: Lloyd Harris · Alexis Galarneau
Prediction summary
Winner
Lloyd Harris
Alexis Galarneau
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lloyd Harris
7-3 (W-L)
Alexis Galarneau
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lloyd Harris 1610 · Alexis Galarneau 1513
| Lloyd Harris | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lloyd Harris (rating 1610 vs 1513).
- Lloyd Harris dominates on serve: 10.6 aces and 66% break avg.
Statistics
| Lloyd Harris | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-13.1 | 10.9-11.4 |
| Aces | 10.6 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.6% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 66% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.5
Over 22.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 40% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lloyd Harris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 02/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 30/08 | Jack Kennedy US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 28/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Henrique Rocha US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Bernard Tomic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 23/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Vit Kopriva Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Alexis Galarneau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Elias Ymer ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Linang Xiao Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Keegan Smith US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Dino Prizmic Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Vit Kopriva ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lloyd Harris vs Alexis Galarneau?
Our model gives 66% to Lloyd Harris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.