Tennis · Challenger Buenos Aires · 22/09, 18:00

Prediction: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Team pages: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo · Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Prediction summary

Winner

59% 41%

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Estimated games

21.8

Recent form · 10 last

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo 5-5 (W-L)

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Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 7-3 (W-L)

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Head-to-head

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo 1–0 Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez (1 last)

12 Nov2-1 17-15W

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juan Carlos Prado Angelo 1512 · Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 1557

	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
Our model	44%	56%
Market	72%	28%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez (rating 1512 vs 1557).
Head-to-head: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo 1–0 Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez (1).

Statistics

	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
Win %	50%	70%
Win % · Clay	50% (6)	100% (1)
Sets (G-P)	1.3-1.2	1.4-0.7
Games (G-P)	11.6-12.4	11.1-8.8
Aces	1	1.8
Double faults	1.3	2.2
1st serve %	62%	68.3%
Break %	36.7%	52.7%

Estimated total games (ours) 21.8

H2H · Juan Carlos Prado Angelo 1 – 0 Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez (1)

Odds Bet365

11.30

23.40

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	2
05:30 +4’	1.30	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Carlos Prado Angelo 1–0 Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
12/11/23 ITF M15 Rosario	2-1	17-15	W

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
24/08	Tomas Barrios Vera US Open · Hard	1-2	9-17	L
20/08	Pedro Martinez Challenger Kingston · Hard	1-2	14-18	L
19/08	Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard	2-1	15-11	W
18/08	Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Kingston · Hard	2-0	12-5	W
31/07	Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger San Marino · Clay	1-2	9-16	L
27/07	Daniel Rincon Challenger San Marino · Clay	2-1	18-14	W
18/07	Taro Daniel ATP Estoril · Clay	0-2	6-12	L
15/07	Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay	0-2	7-13	L
14/07	Lukas Neumayer ATP Umag · Clay	2-0	13-9	W
12/07	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo ATP Umag · Clay	2-0	13-9	W

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

WWLLW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
21/09	Tadeo Meneo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
04/08	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves M25 Londrina	0-2	8-12	L
25/07	Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos M25 Sao Paulo	0-2	10-13	L
24/07	Jose Pereira M25 Sao Paulo	2-0	12-6	W
23/07	Nicolas Zanellato M25 Sao Paulo	2-0	12-4	W
22/07	Maximo Zeitune M25 Sao Paulo	2-1	16-16	W
19/07	Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Villa Constitucion	0-2	4-12	L
18/07	Thiago Cigarran M15 Villa Constitucion	2-0	13-9	W
17/07	Fermin Tenti M15 Villa Constitucion	2-0	12-5	W
15/07	Federico Aguilar Cardozo M15 Villa Constitucion	2-0	12-5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez?

Our model gives 59% to Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.