Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 22/09, 07:00
Prediction: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Andre Ilagan
Team pages: Petr Bar Biryukov · Andre Ilagan
Prediction summary
Winner
Petr Bar Biryukov
Andre Ilagan
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Petr Bar Biryukov
5-5 (W-L)
Andre Ilagan
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Petr Bar Biryukov 1492 · Andre Ilagan 1533
| Petr Bar Biryukov | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andre Ilagan (rating 1492 vs 1533).
- Note: Petr Bar Biryukov makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Petr Bar Biryukov | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12.7 | 12.4-12.1 |
| Aces | 8.9 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 32.2% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.2
Over 22.5: 58% · 1.72
Under 22.5: 42% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Petr Bar Biryukov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 17/09 | Naoya Honda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/09 | Jesse Delaney Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 01/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Qian Sun M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Kokoro Isomura M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | James Van Herzeele M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Andre Ilagan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Tristan Boyer US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 16/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 09/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 08/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Petr Bar Biryukov vs Andre Ilagan?
Our model gives 63% to Andre Ilagan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.