Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 22/09, 10:00
Prediction: Kaichi Uchida vs Federico Cina
Team pages: Kaichi Uchida · Federico Cina
Prediction summary
Winner
Kaichi Uchida
Federico Cina
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kaichi Uchida
2-8 (W-L)
Federico Cina
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kaichi Uchida 1383 · Federico Cina 1491
| Kaichi Uchida | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Federico Cina (rating 1383 vs 1491).
- Federico Cina is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Kaichi Uchida | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 0% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (6) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.2-2 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.5-12.8 | 12.1-12.8 |
| Aces | 8.1 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 29.1% | 33.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.3
Over 19.5: 65% · 1.90
Under 19.5: 35% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaichi Uchida
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 07/09 | Linang Xiao Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Hanyi Liu Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 26/08 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Bernard Tomic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Federico Cina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | James Trotter Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 28/08 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 27/08 | Hugo Dellien US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Elias Ymer Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 19/07 | Lorenzo Giustino ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Daniel Michalski ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaichi Uchida vs Federico Cina?
Our model gives 77% to Federico Cina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.