Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 22/09, 07:00
Prediction: Elias Ymer vs Alexis Galarneau
Team pages: Elias Ymer · Alexis Galarneau
Prediction summary
Winner
Elias Ymer
Alexis Galarneau
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elias Ymer
4-6 (W-L)
Alexis Galarneau
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elias Ymer 1486 · Alexis Galarneau 1488
| Elias Ymer | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Elias Ymer | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12 | 10.7-11.7 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 66% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 42.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 51% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 49% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elias Ymer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Franco Roncadelli US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Paul Jubb Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Federico Cina Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Alexis Galarneau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Linang Xiao Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Keegan Smith US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Dino Prizmic Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Vit Kopriva ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elias Ymer vs Alexis Galarneau?
Our model gives 59% to Alexis Galarneau, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.