Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 22/09, 07:00
Prediction: Alexandre Muller vs Luka Pavlovic
Team pages: Alexandre Muller · Luka Pavlovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexandre Muller
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexandre Muller
3-7 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandre Muller 1479 · Luka Pavlovic 1532
| Alexandre Muller | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luka Pavlovic (rating 1479 vs 1532).
- Luka Pavlovic dominates on serve: 10.8 aces and 46.6% break avg.
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Alexandre Muller | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-11.2 | 13.1-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 10.8 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 79% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.1
Over 23.5: 43% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 57% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandre Muller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Ziga Sesko Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Laslo Djere US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 29/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/07 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Ha Minh Duc Vu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexandre Muller vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 53% to Alexandre Muller, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.