Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 22/09, 08:30
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov
Team pages: Luca Castelnuovo · Pavel Kotov
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Pavel Kotov
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
6-4 (W-L)
Pavel Kotov
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1537 · Pavel Kotov 1571
| Luca Castelnuovo | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 9.8 aces and 41.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.2 | 11.7-10.8 |
| Aces | 9.8 | 6 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 78.6% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 37.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 52% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Pavel Kotov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov?
Our model gives 67% to Pavel Kotov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.