Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 22/09, 08:30
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Linang Xiao
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Linang Xiao
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Linang Xiao
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
2-8 (W-L)
Linang Xiao
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Shintaro Mochizuki
0–1
Linang Xiao
(1 last)
- 30 Sept0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1451 · Linang Xiao 1426
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Linang Xiao | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Shintaro Mochizuki 0–1 Linang Xiao (1).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Linang Xiao | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-12.9 | 11.1-13.2 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 48.5% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +4
Over 18.5: 76% · 1.90
Under 18.5: 24% · 1.80
H2H · Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 1 Linang Xiao (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shintaro Mochizuki 0–1 Linang Xiao
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/24 ATP Shanghai | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Braden Shick US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Daniel Milavsky US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Linang Xiao
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Colin Sinclair M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 26/08 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Xiuyuan Ye M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/05 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/04 | Filip Peliwo M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Blake Ellis Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 02/04 | Colin Sinclair M25 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Linang Xiao?
Our model gives 73% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.