Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 24/09, 06:00
Prediction: James Duckworth vs Lorenzo Sonego
Team pages: James Duckworth · Lorenzo Sonego
Prediction summary
Winner
James Duckworth
Lorenzo Sonego
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
James Duckworth
5-5 (W-L)
Lorenzo Sonego
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
James Duckworth
1–2
Lorenzo Sonego
(3 last)
- 27 Aug2-0 13-8W
- 21 Jun1-2 18-18L
- 03 Jul0-3 11-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · James Duckworth 1547 · Lorenzo Sonego 1486
| James Duckworth | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours James Duckworth (rating 1547 vs 1486).
- Head-to-head: James Duckworth 1–2 Lorenzo Sonego (3).
- Note: James Duckworth makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| James Duckworth | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-12.3 | 13.3-13.4 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 8.8 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 34.7% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.6
Over 23.5: 61% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 39% · 1.80
H2H · James Duckworth 1 – 2 Lorenzo Sonego (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · James Duckworth 1–2 Lorenzo Sonego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/26 ATP Winston-Salem | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/06/22 ATP Eastbourne | 1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 03/07/21 Wimbledon | 0-3 | 11-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
James Duckworth
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 03/09 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Matteo Arnaldi US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 28/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 14/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Lorenzo Sonego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 02/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 27/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in James Duckworth vs Lorenzo Sonego?
Our model gives 50% to James Duckworth, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.