Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 24/09, 06:00
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Jenson Brooksby
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Jenson Brooksby
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Jenson Brooksby
Estimated games
21.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
7-3 (W-L)
Jenson Brooksby
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sebastian Baez
2–0
Jenson Brooksby
(2 last)
- 06 May2-0 13-9W
- 14 Jan2-0 13-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1552 · Jenson Brooksby 1463
| Sebastian Baez | Jenson Brooksby | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Baez (rating 1552 vs 1463).
- Head-to-head: Sebastian Baez 2–0 Jenson Brooksby (2).
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Jenson Brooksby | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-11.3 | 11.1-12 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 52.1% | 37% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.8
Over 22.5: 44% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 56% · 1.83
H2H · Sebastian Baez 2 – 0 Jenson Brooksby (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sebastian Baez 2–0 Jenson Brooksby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 ATP Rome | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/01/26 ATP Auckland | 2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 23/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Jenson Brooksby
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Jaime Faria US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-24 | L |
| 25/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Adam Walton ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Coleman Wong ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Edward Winter ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Corentin Moutet ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Jenson Brooksby?
Our model gives 53% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.