Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 24/09, 06:00
Prediction: Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Tallon Griekspoor · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Tallon Griekspoor
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tallon Griekspoor
3-7 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tallon Griekspoor
1–1
Denis Shapovalov
(2 last)
- 14 Apr1-2 12-15L
- 22 May2-1 19-16W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tallon Griekspoor 1484 · Denis Shapovalov 1558
| Tallon Griekspoor | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denis Shapovalov (rating 1484 vs 1558).
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 46.6% break avg.
- Denis Shapovalov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (7.2/match).
Statistics
| Tallon Griekspoor | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.6 | 1.8-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-14.3 | 15.1-12.1 |
| Aces | 9.8 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 7.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.1% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 32.8% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.9
Over 23.5: 63% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 37% · 1.80
H2H · Tallon Griekspoor 1 – 1 Denis Shapovalov (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tallon Griekspoor 1–1 Denis Shapovalov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 ATP Munich | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 22/05/24 ATP Geneva | 2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tallon Griekspoor
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Nicolas Mejia Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 09/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 27/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 30/06 | James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 16/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Denis Shapovalov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 59% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.