Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 24/09, 06:00
Prediction: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hubert Hurkacz
Team pages: Alexander Shevchenko · Hubert Hurkacz
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Shevchenko
Hubert Hurkacz
Estimated games
24.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Shevchenko
6-4 (W-L)
Hubert Hurkacz
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Shevchenko
0–4
Hubert Hurkacz
(4 last)
- 04 Jan0-2 5-12L
- 23 Mar1-2 14-18L
- 08 Feb0-2 5-12L
- 28 Feb1-2 15-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Shevchenko 1471 · Hubert Hurkacz 1562
| Alexander Shevchenko | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1471 vs 1562).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 12.8 aces and 41% break avg.
- Hubert Hurkacz is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Shevchenko 0–4 Hubert Hurkacz (4).
- Note: Alexander Shevchenko makes many double faults (4.7/match).
- Note: Hubert Hurkacz makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Shevchenko | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (5) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.4 | 1.8-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-13.4 | 15.5-12.3 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 12.8 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.6% | 77% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.3
Over 21.5: 72% · 2.00
Under 21.5: 28% · 1.72
H2H · Alexander Shevchenko 0 – 4 Hubert Hurkacz (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Shevchenko 0–4 Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/25 United Cup | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/03/24 ATP Miami | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 08/02/24 ATP Marseille | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/02/23 ATP Dubai | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Shevchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 14/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 18/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/07 | Dominic Stephan Stricker ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Alexandre Muller ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 31/08 | Damir Dzumhur US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/08 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 05/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Shevchenko vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model gives 74% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.