Tennis · Challenger Buenos Aires · 21/09, 15:00
Prediction: Valentin Garay vs Alex Barrena
Team pages: Valentin Garay · Alex Barrena
Prediction summary
Winner
Valentin Garay
Alex Barrena
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Valentin Garay
6-4 (W-L)
Alex Barrena
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentin Garay 1455 · Alex Barrena 1530
| Valentin Garay | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Barrena (rating 1455 vs 1530).
- Alex Barrena is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Valentin Garay | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.3-10.4 | 11.4-11.3 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 61.4% | 60.2% |
| Break % | 53.6% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentin Garay
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Belem |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Eric Von Marton Martins M15 Belem |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Joao Cunha Cunha M15 Leme |
1-2 | 8-8 | L |
| 31/08 | Thomas Enrique Menzel Piccioli M15 Trelew |
1-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 11/05 | Tomas Farjat Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Juan Bautista Torres M25 Villa Maria · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Mateo Carballo M25 Villa Maria · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/04 | Dante Pagani M25 Lujan · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 18/04 | Ezequiel Simonit UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/04 | Leonel Cesar Castro UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Alex Barrena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/09 | Maxime Chazal Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 12/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 09/09 | Nico Hipfl Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentin Garay vs Alex Barrena?
Our model gives 77% to Alex Barrena, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.