Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 11/09, 11:30
Prediction: Yanki Erel vs Jay Friend
Team pages: Yanki Erel · Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
Yanki Erel
Jay Friend
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Yanki Erel
8-2 (W-L)
Jay Friend
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yanki Erel 1574 · Jay Friend 1527
| Yanki Erel | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanki Erel (rating 1574 vs 1527).
- Note: Jay Friend makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Yanki Erel | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-7.9 | 11.4-11.7 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 75.7% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 45% | 30.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yanki Erel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Radu Albot Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Keisuke Saitoh M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 03/09 | Yuto Oki M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | Kousuke Ogura M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 28/08 | Luca Castelnuovo M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Hikaru Shiraishi M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 26/08 | Kokoro Isomura M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Samir Hamza Reguig Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/09 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Billy Harris Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Michael Geerts Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Colton Smith Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 01/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yanki Erel vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 51% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.