Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 10/09, 09:00
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Maks Kasnikowski
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Maks Kasnikowski
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Maks Kasnikowski
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Maks Kasnikowski
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francesco Maestrelli
0–1
Maks Kasnikowski
(1 last)
- 10 Jun0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1469 · Maks Kasnikowski 1519
| Francesco Maestrelli | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maks Kasnikowski (rating 1469 vs 1519).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 47.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Francesco Maestrelli 0–1 Maks Kasnikowski (1).
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-13 | 13-12.8 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 5 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.1% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 31.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
H2H · Francesco Maestrelli 0 – 1 Maks Kasnikowski (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francesco Maestrelli 0–1 Maks Kasnikowski
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/24 Challenger Perugia | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Maks Kasnikowski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Christian Langmo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Ivan Marrero Curbelo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 02/09 | Elmer Moller Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 25/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Ivan Marrero Curbelo Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Philip Henning Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Liberec · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Hynek Barton Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Maks Kasnikowski?
Our model gives 56% to Maks Kasnikowski, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.