Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 09/09, 10:30
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Alafia Ayeni
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Alafia Ayeni
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Alafia Ayeni
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Alafia Ayeni
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1442 · Alafia Ayeni 1488
| Francesco Maestrelli | Alafia Ayeni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alafia Ayeni (rating 1442 vs 1488).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 45.7% break avg.
- Note: Alafia Ayeni makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Alafia Ayeni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-13.4 | 10-10.7 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 6.1 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 45.7% | 56.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Alafia Ayeni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/09 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Tiago Cacao Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Adrien Burdet Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zach Stephens Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Mikel Martinez M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Alafia Ayeni?
Our model gives 59% to Francesco Maestrelli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.