Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 10/09, 09:00
Prediction: Miguel Tobon vs Edas Butvilas
Team pages: Miguel Tobon · Edas Butvilas
Prediction summary
Winner
Miguel Tobon
Edas Butvilas
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Miguel Tobon
5-5 (W-L)
Edas Butvilas
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miguel Tobon 1494 · Edas Butvilas 1576
| Miguel Tobon | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Edas Butvilas (rating 1494 vs 1576).
- Edas Butvilas dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 52.9% break avg.
- Edas Butvilas is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Miguel Tobon | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12 | 14.8-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 45.7% | 52.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miguel Tobon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Koray Kirci Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Pietro Orlando Fellin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 26/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 20/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 13/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Edas Butvilas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/08 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 07/08 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 06/08 | Ozan Baris Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miguel Tobon vs Edas Butvilas?
Our model gives 68% to Edas Butvilas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.