Tennis · M25 Sintra · 09/09, 11:00
Prediction: Finn Murgett vs Diogo Marques
Prediction summary
Winner
Finn Murgett
Diogo Marques
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Finn Murgett
6-4 (W-L)
Diogo Marques
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Finn Murgett
1–0
Diogo Marques
(1 last)
- 26 Jun2-1 17-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Finn Murgett 1560 · Diogo Marques 1480
| Finn Murgett | Diogo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Finn Murgett (rating 1560 vs 1480).
- Finn Murgett is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Finn Murgett 1–0 Diogo Marques (1).
Statistics
| Finn Murgett | Diogo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-8.6 | 11.6-11.9 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 68% |
| Break % | 67.8% | 43.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Finn Murgett 1 – 0 Diogo Marques (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Finn Murgett 1–0 Diogo Marques
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/25 ITF M25 Elvas | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Finn Murgett
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Baltazar Wiger Nordas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/08 | Rupert George UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/08 | Sil Hollemans UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Aaron Hilsum UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/08 | Luca Bluett UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Arthur Weber M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 14/05 | Louis Larue M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-7 | W |
| 13/05 | Edouard Villoslada M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/05 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Nottingham |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 05/05 | Ronit Karki M25 Nottingham |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Diogo Marques
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06 | Toufik Sahtali M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 27/05 | Nicolas Tepmahc M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/05 | Goncalo Marques M25 Loule · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 07/05 | Tomas Curras Abasolo M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 06/05 | Jose Freitas M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 24/04 | Izan Almazan Valiente M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/04 | Hugo Maia M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 21/04 | Ivan Perez Martin M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/02 | Sean Hodkin M25 Vale do Lobo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 17/02 | Tomas Luis M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Finn Murgett vs Diogo Marques?
Our model gives 64% to Finn Murgett, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.