Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 07/09, 09:00
Prediction: Alex Hernandez vs Tuncay Duran
Team pages: Alex Hernandez · Tuncay Duran
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Hernandez
Tuncay Duran
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Hernandez
5-5 (W-L)
Tuncay Duran
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Hernandez 1473 · Tuncay Duran 1532
| Alex Hernandez | Tuncay Duran | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tuncay Duran (rating 1473 vs 1532).
- Tuncay Duran dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 51.4% break avg.
- Tuncay Duran is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alex Hernandez | Tuncay Duran | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-12.2 | 11.9-10.7 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 80.8% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 51.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Hernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Cem Ilkel Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Alan Magadan Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 02/08 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Alan Magadan ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Nick Hardt Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
Tuncay Duran
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Togan Tokac Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/08 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 27/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Naoki Tajima Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/07 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Paul Barbier Gazeu M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Logan Zapp M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Karim Mabrouk M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Hernandez vs Tuncay Duran?
Our model gives 63% to Tuncay Duran, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.