Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 08/09, 09:00
Prediction: Mert Alkaya vs Tiago Torres
Team pages: Mert Alkaya · Tiago Torres
Prediction summary
Winner
Mert Alkaya
Tiago Torres
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Mert Alkaya
6-4 (W-L)
Tiago Torres
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mert Alkaya
1–0
Tiago Torres
(1 last)
- 05 Apr2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mert Alkaya 1520 · Tiago Torres 1515
| Mert Alkaya | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Mert Alkaya dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Mert Alkaya 1–0 Tiago Torres (1).
- Note: Tiago Torres makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Mert Alkaya | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.1 | 11.2-10.2 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Mert Alkaya 1 – 0 Tiago Torres (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mert Alkaya 1–0 Tiago Torres
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 M15 Monastir | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mert Alkaya
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Sidharth Rawat Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/08 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Saba Purtseladze Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Akira Santillan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/07 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Tiago Torres
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Hugo Gaston ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Patrick Schoen M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Lucca Liu M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Lui Maxted M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mert Alkaya vs Tiago Torres?
Our model gives 50% to Mert Alkaya, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.