Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 08/09, 09:00
Prediction: Alafia Ayeni vs Carl Emil Overbeck
Team pages: Alafia Ayeni · Carl Emil Overbeck
Prediction summary
Winner
Alafia Ayeni
Carl Emil Overbeck
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Alafia Ayeni
4-6 (W-L)
Carl Emil Overbeck
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alafia Ayeni 1450 · Carl Emil Overbeck 1603
| Alafia Ayeni | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carl Emil Overbeck (rating 1450 vs 1603).
- Carl Emil Overbeck dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 44.1% break avg.
- Carl Emil Overbeck is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Alafia Ayeni makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Alafia Ayeni | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (5) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-11.2 | 12.2-9.3 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 7 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 53.3% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alafia Ayeni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Tiago Cacao Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Adrien Burdet Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zach Stephens Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Mikel Martinez M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Carl Emil Overbeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Ryan Peniston Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Fano |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Tobia Grandinetti M25 Fano |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Petr Nesterov M25 Gentofte |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Jonas Eriksson Ziverts M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alafia Ayeni vs Carl Emil Overbeck?
Our model gives 75% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.