Tennis · M15 Trelew · 05/09, 20:30
Prediction: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Lorenzo Gagliardo
Team pages: Carlos Maria Zarate · Lorenzo Gagliardo
Prediction summary
Winner
Carlos Maria Zarate
Lorenzo Gagliardo
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Carlos Maria Zarate
7-3 (W-L)
Lorenzo Gagliardo
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Carlos Maria Zarate
1–0
Lorenzo Gagliardo
(1 last)
- 10 Jul1-0 13-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlos Maria Zarate 1602 · Lorenzo Gagliardo 1530
| Carlos Maria Zarate | Lorenzo Gagliardo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Maria Zarate (rating 1602 vs 1530).
- Head-to-head: Carlos Maria Zarate 1–0 Lorenzo Gagliardo (1).
Statistics
| Carlos Maria Zarate | Lorenzo Gagliardo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-9 | 11-9.6 |
| Aces | 3 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 60.2% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 54.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Carlos Maria Zarate 1 – 0 Lorenzo Gagliardo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlos Maria Zarate 1–0 Lorenzo Gagliardo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/26 M15 San Salvador de Jujuy | 1-0 | 13-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlos Maria Zarate
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Felix Corwin M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Valentino Grippo M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Giovanni Branchetti M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Nicolas Bruna M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Mar Del Plata |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Bastian Malla M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Tomas Martinez M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Santiago Giamichelle M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/08 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos M25 Londrina |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
Lorenzo Gagliardo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Federico Aguilar Cardozo M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 03/09 | Ivan Dreycopp M15 Trelew |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/09 | Francisco Gay M15 Trelew |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 28/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Mar Del Plata |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Gonzalo Zeitune M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Nicolas Garcia Longo M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Santiago De La Fuente M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Bastian Malla M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/07 | Fermin Tenti M15 Villa Constitucion |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlos Maria Zarate vs Lorenzo Gagliardo?
Our model gives 61% to Carlos Maria Zarate, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.