Tennis · Challenger Porto · 04/09, 14:00
Prediction: Gustavo Heide vs Thiago Monteiro
Team pages: Gustavo Heide · Thiago Monteiro
Prediction summary
Winner
Gustavo Heide
Thiago Monteiro
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Gustavo Heide
4-6 (W-L)
Thiago Monteiro
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1503 · Thiago Monteiro 1583
| Gustavo Heide | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1503 vs 1583).
- Thiago Monteiro is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Gustavo Heide makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-11.6 | 13.4-9.1 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 26% | 52.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 31/08 | Goncalo Marques Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 17/08 | Harold Mayot Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/07 | David Poljak Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Thiago Monteiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 03/08 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Ivan Gakhov Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 31/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 30/07 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Manuel Mazza Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Alberto Bronzetti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gustavo Heide vs Thiago Monteiro?
Our model gives 50% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.