Tennis · Challenger Porto · 02/09, 14:00
Prediction: Gustavo Heide vs Tiago Pereira
Team pages: Gustavo Heide · Tiago Pereira
Prediction summary
Winner
Gustavo Heide
Tiago Pereira
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gustavo Heide
4-6 (W-L)
Tiago Pereira
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1498 · Tiago Pereira 1567
| Gustavo Heide | Tiago Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tiago Pereira (rating 1498 vs 1567).
- Tiago Pereira is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Gustavo Heide makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Tiago Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-11.8 | 12.5-9.8 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 78.8% |
| Break % | 24.6% | 47.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Goncalo Marques Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 17/08 | Harold Mayot Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/07 | David Poljak Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Tiago Pereira
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Francisco Rocha Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Niccolo Catini M25 Poznan |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Tristan McCormick M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 12/08 | Rodrigo Leal M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/08 | Oleg Prihodko M25 Koszalin |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Alan Wazny M25 Koszalin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Massimo Pizzigoni M25 Koszalin |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gustavo Heide vs Tiago Pereira?
Our model gives 61% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.