Tennis · Challenger Porto · 03/09, 11:00
Prediction: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Hugo Dellien
Team pages: Gilles Arnaud Bailly · Hugo Dellien
Prediction summary
Winner
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Hugo Dellien
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
6-4 (W-L)
Hugo Dellien
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gilles Arnaud Bailly 1495 · Hugo Dellien 1544
| Gilles Arnaud Bailly | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hugo Dellien (rating 1495 vs 1544).
Statistics
| Gilles Arnaud Bailly | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-9.3 | 11.5-10.7 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 3 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 54% | 39.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Alex Barrena Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Timofey Skatov US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Raphael Perot M25 Koksijde |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Fadi Bidan M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/08 | Mac Visser M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Zaccharie Cado M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Hynek Barton Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Hugo Dellien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Moez Echargui US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Pedro Martinez Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Laslo Djere ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Michele Ribecai ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 17/07 | Matyas Fuele Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 16/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 17-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Hugo Dellien?
Our model gives 61% to Hugo Dellien, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.