Tennis · M25 Casablanca · 02/09, 11:00
Prediction: Petros Tsitsipas vs Arthur Nagel
Team pages: Petros Tsitsipas · Arthur Nagel
Prediction summary
Winner
Petros Tsitsipas
Arthur Nagel
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Petros Tsitsipas
3-7 (W-L)
Arthur Nagel
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Petros Tsitsipas 1472 · Arthur Nagel 1576
| Petros Tsitsipas | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Nagel (rating 1472 vs 1576).
- Arthur Nagel is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Petros Tsitsipas makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Petros Tsitsipas | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-11.8 | 13.9-11.4 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 59.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Petros Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Tommaso Compagnucci M25 Ollersbach |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Theo Papamalamis M25 Kramsach |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Maurice-Noel Kaserer M25 Kramsach |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M15 Lodz |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Lodz |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Martins Rocens M15 Lodz |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Bozo Barun M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Glib Sekachov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Arthur Nagel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Tim Handel M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Daniel Masur M25 Ueberlingen |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/08 | Jannik Maute M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Laurens Harnoth Manrubia M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg M25 Muttenz |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Martin Van Der Meerschen M15 Eupen |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Harold Huens M15 Eupen |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Theo Papamalamis M15 Strasbourg |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 31/07 | Tristan Berard M15 Strasbourg |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Liam Branger M15 Strasbourg |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Petros Tsitsipas vs Arthur Nagel?
Our model gives 75% to Arthur Nagel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.