Tennis · M25 Casablanca · 03/09, 12:00
Prediction: Diogo Morais vs Arthur Nagel
Team pages: Diogo Morais · Arthur Nagel
Prediction summary
Winner
Diogo Morais
Arthur Nagel
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Diogo Morais
6-4 (W-L)
Arthur Nagel
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Diogo Morais 1510 · Arthur Nagel 1581
| Diogo Morais | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Nagel (rating 1510 vs 1581).
Statistics
| Diogo Morais | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (2) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.8 | 13.5-10.5 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 67.7% |
| Break % | 47.8% | 58.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Diogo Morais
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Yazid Lahjomri M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Romesh Kahatapitiya M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Izan Almazan Valiente M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Rocco Piatti M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 10/08 | Francisco Guimaraes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07 | Pablo Perez Ramos M15 Castelo Branco |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 14/07 | Francisco Faria M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Dominique Rolland M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Porto |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Porto |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
Arthur Nagel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Petros Tsitsipas M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Tim Handel M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Daniel Masur M25 Ueberlingen |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/08 | Jannik Maute M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Laurens Harnoth Manrubia M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg M25 Muttenz |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Martin Van Der Meerschen M15 Eupen |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Harold Huens M15 Eupen |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Theo Papamalamis M15 Strasbourg |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 31/07 | Tristan Berard M15 Strasbourg |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Diogo Morais vs Arthur Nagel?
Our model gives 74% to Arthur Nagel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.